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9.3.1. Implementing the instruments Once chosen, the instruments have to be implemented, meaning they have to be set up in a suitable place, away from vibrations, temperature variations and, generally speaking, protected from any disruptive agent . It is highly desirable to have a large table at one s disposal with nothing on it but what is necessary, that is: the elements to control; the instrument or the measuring assemblies, separate references included; the accessories: calculator, recorder, printer, etc.; the instructions for use of the main measuring instrument; a laboratory notebook.

your strategies for the future The earnings analysts methodology is simple They start with what they know, which is the past Since they know their knowledge isn t complete, they make an adjustment to the past numbers based on how good or bad they feel at the moment And then, because they want to allow for uncertainty, they add a 10 percent or 20 percent adjustment for what they don t know I ll repeat what I said before, and now you ll understand why it s so important What they know is dwarfed by what they don t know; therefore it s totally crazy to base their expectations on what they know At major turning points, which happen more and more frequently in modern times, a 10 percent or 20 percent adjustment to the past is a joke.

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Another way to value Berkshire is to simply put a multiple on its aftertax earnings the P/E ratio just as one might do for any company. It s a little complex for two reasons, however: First, Berkshire s earnings need to be adjusted for investment and derivative gains/losses, which (from the 2008 annual report) have no predictive value, and variations in amount from period to period have no practical analytical value. For example, in 2008 there were big mark-to-market losses on derivatives, and in 2005 there was a huge gain when Gillette was acquired by Procter & Gamble. So, net earnings for Berkshire in 2008 were $5.0 billion, to which one would add back $7.5 billion in investment and derivative losses, which equals $12.5 billion. However, it was a benign year for super-cat losses and the odds that Berkshire might have to pay out real cash on its derivatives contracts went up, so we haircut the $12.5 billion to $10 billion. The second adjustment is that Berkshire owns large stakes in many publicly traded companies, but the pro-rata shares of those companies retained earnings don t appear on Berkshire s income statement, so we need to estimate what Berkshire s shares would be. Our estimate is $2.4 billion of 2008 look-through earnings. Again, now the math is easy: $10 billion of Berkshire s earnings plus $2.4 billion of look-through earnings equals $12.4 billion, or $8,000 per share. With the stock at $84,844,

By 2008, everything about the United States and global economy had changed Sales and pro ts were going from good to zero no money, no jobs, no capital, no re nancing, no sales, no pro t It s as simple as that Past success was totally irrelevant In the past, consumers were buying, companies had nancing, and the economy was functioning normally In 2008, everything was grinding to a not-sogradual halt Yet analysts looked at the previous year s earnings, and asked themselves out loud on TV: Do you think pro ts could actually be down 50 percent I ve never seen that in my life, so let s say they decline by 30 percent That would be huge! Does that sound like science to you Of course, they were totally wrong When people stop buying, you don t get a 20 percent decline.

June 12, 2004

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